Have We Reached the Floor in Housing?

April 16, 2009

The recent uptick in real estate activity has really started to bring out the optimists.  I follow CNBC, the NY Times, and the FOX news organizations fairly regularly.  It hasn’t been until recently that I started to see stories with a positive tone regarding the housing market or the economy.  Who knows, maybe it’s that spring is here and flowers are blooming outside and better weather is upon us.  Needless to say, the recent rash of positive stories started to get me thinking of whether we actually might be at or approaching the bottom of the market. 

As I thought more about this possibility, I jotted down reasons for why people are considering this to be the bottom.  Here is what I came up with:

  • Inventory numbers are decreasing
  • Open houses are bustling with more potential buyers
  • Properties are spending less time on the market
  • Interest rates are at historical lows

These are all good signs.  Unfortunately, there are two things that are holding us back from becoming a true believer – foreclosures and short sales.  There appears to be some misleading information out there that the number of short sales and foreclosures coming on the market have slowed considerably.

One site, Trulia offers to explain this information. Trulia recently reported that despite the large volume of foreclosures (see the list below), there has been a significant drop in the number of foreclosure properties coming on the market in some states.

  1.  Las Vegas, NV (31,983)
  2. Phoenix, AZ (19,075)
  3. Chicago, IL (16,038)
  4. Los Angeles, CA (9,913)
  5. Sacramento, CA (9,346)
  6. San Diego, CA (7,668)
  7. North Las Vegas, NV (6,852)
  8. Bakersfield, CA (6,744)
  9. Miami, FL (6,699)
  10. Tampa, FL (6,487)
  11. Indianapolis, IN (6,377)
  12. Stockton, CA (5,924)
  13. Atlanta, GA (5,859)
  14. Orlando, FL (5,855)
  15. San Jose, CA (5,802)

 What is the central cause of the drop?

According to the Trulia article, a number of states are Read more

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